Some benefits of the 5 headed hydra

I have been a bit preoccupied over the last few months with my crappy job and the credit crunch (hint: it's a little uncomfortable being a finance lawyer when nobody is lending... it's still long hours but with sweet FA to do, a story for another time), but I had to say something about the upcoming election, especially as I overseas voted today, a surprisingly pain-free process, although I am not sure that the unsecured cardboard 'Victorian Elections' box looked all that secure.

A lot of people who sit somewhat to the right of centre might have been focusing on the negative aspects that will result from a fourth Labour-corralled government in a row. I thought I would focus on the silver lining that even we may enjoy if (in the unfortunately reasonable likely event that all rational NZers succumb to some sort of displaced personality disorder and cannot find themselves on the electoral role come election day) the 5 headed hydra manages to devour the next 3 years of our lives.

So imagine with me if you will, a time where Helen and Mike, Russell and Jeanette, Tariana and Pita, and Jim and Winnie manage to scrap together 64 seats and form the government after having gained less than half of the valid votes. The five benefits that follow (one for each coalition partner) will keep us warm during the long winter of 2009-2011.

1. An end to MMP
   

   Admittedly this one is probably a little far fetched, but also holds potentially the greatest rewards for those interested in a return to good government.
   

   Imagine the 5 headed hydra claws itself back in despite Labour / Greens / Maori / Progressives / New Zealand First getting less than half the valid votes and New Zealand revolts against MMP. MMP is blamed for allowing such an undemocratic result to occur despite the will of the majority of New Zealand, Chris Trotter places the majority on trial for treason but no one notices. National campaigns in 2011 on electoral reform and wins a landslide 57% of the party votes, in 2012 a referendum expresses desire for a return to FPP (sorry STV, I think you would be best, but you just don't make sense to the average voter, after all who wants to rank every candidate in order (other than those reading this post)) and the 2014 election is held as a FPP election. National governs after receiving 48% of the vote, Labour is in opposition with 32% and somehow Winston wins Tauranga. NZ returns to single party governments who can reform without having to appease extremist (or blatantly populist) minor parties. NZ edges up to 21^st place in the OECD.
   

   While fantasy, the above situation could happen. In 1978 and 1981, National won more seats despite winning less votes overall than Labour. This lead to the Royal Commission on the electoral system and, combined with dissatisfaction with the fourth Labour government (although how could you really stay mad at them) led to Bolger promising and delivering the referendum on the electoral system and the eventual adoption of MMP. It is also arguably easier to return to FPP than it was to make the jump to MMP in the 1990s (especially for National and Labour).
   

   Some of the benefits of a return to FFP would be:
   

• getting rid of the cults of personality that lead many of the minor parties. People like Winston are not fit to govern but only do because they appeal to enough crazy or careless people who are sucked in by their posturing to vote for them. Peters only needs one in twenty (actually less given voter apathy of many in mainstream society) to make it back time and again under MMP – and these people can be spread thin. Under FPP, without the support of a major party, a plurity of an electorate will not likely vote for a minor or an outcast, as it would just be a wasted vote. Sure you may miss out on someone who exactly represents your special brand of craziness, but at least those that rise up in major parties are (for the most part) stable and capable.
  
• the policies voted for before an election are more likely to be the policies delivered on after the election. Under MMP a government is not formed on election night, election night is when the negotiation starts with the minor parties to gain their confidence and supply. The only way to gain confidence and supply of a minor party is to give them policy concessions; you need to give up something you campaigned on (e.g. National - bye bye saying goodbye to the Maori seats), or must give something you haven't (e.g. Labour – [insert pleasurable activity e.g. Showering / benefit to humanity here] is now banned as part of our confidence and supply agreement with the Greens).
  
• returning to the idea of the MP as the fundamental actor in politics. One thing, and this is going to sound so Edmund Burke, that I regret is the central importance of the party to current NZ politics rather than the MPs in parliament. The idea of voting for someone, rather than an ideology or brand, holds a lot of attraction – especially in giving a vote for a person's skills and convictions rather than voting for a party and hope that the party selectors have given us a good batch this year.
  
• effective government. FPP is more likely to have majority governments rather than the minority coalition governments we have been getting lately. We are not going to see another fourth Labour government under MMP.
  

Of course there are pitfalls too. For example there is more vote wastage, as if you vote for the losing candidate in your electorate your vote has no influence on the formation or makeup of Parliament.

A switch to another proportional system (such as STV) would be even better... I can however but dream...

1. Finally have those people who didn't do all the public law classes at law school care about constitutional reform
   

   Continuing on with the theme of a revolt against the system that managed to install the 5 headed hydra, the (not so) average New Zealander may start to care about constitutional reform. Currently only people at law school studying public law care.
   

   First on my list of reform topics would be:
   

• Electoral Finance Act – this will go anyway if National win next weekend, but people will hopefully start to see what a horrible and undemocratic piece of legislation this is. Others have put far more time and thought into why this is so bad so I won't rant here, but it has to go.
  
• The Maori seats – this may come under threat if the Maori party hold the balance of power and go with Labour despite the National-bloc having a plurity of the votes cast. The seats create two classes of voters, those on the Maori roll who can tactically vote to support the party of their choice and the Maori party – thereby creating overhang seats and receiving greater influence with their vote, and those on the general roll who can't. With the switch to MMP, the Maori seats are unnecessary, it ain't about the people in parliament any more, it's about the parties and Maori do not need special seats to have Maori parties in parliament. Read the Royal Commission on the Electoral System, it's all in there.
  
• A written constitution – there is virtually no limit on the power of parliament in New Zealand. A party that controls parliament can pretty much do whatever it wants, no matter how undemocratic it is (*cough* Electoral Finance Act *cough*). A written constitution, if made properly (i.e. this time DO NOT copy Australia), can be flexible and can constrain the excess of governance without harming government. I believe it would also lead to greater public buy in to the civic process, just look at the USA, it's not a perfect system, but at least everyone knows how it works (who in NZ really understands how the executive and legislature differ, or what a constitutional convention is).
  
• Become a republic – NZ at least needs to have the discussion... and I don't even believe in national identity.
  
• A set date for elections – instead of whenever the PM decides to call an election, there should be a set date that elections occur on (e.g. the first Saturday of November every FOUR years – and to hell with the rugby). This would remove a major advantage of the incumbent government.
  

1. New Zealand goes bankrupt
   

   The 5 headed hydra will run the economy into (and deep under) the ground. The 5 headed hydra parties are not parties able to cope with solving problems except by buying their way out of trouble. New Zealand needs a major rethink of its economy, Labour has left it listless. There are however at least two economic benefits to a bankrupt New Zealand, both flowing from a collapsed New Zealand dollar.
   

   One, non-dairy exporters will finally be able to sell something overseas again and hopefully productivity will begin to grow and not be based on 'borrow and consume'.
   

   Two, I, having emigrated to Australia seeking greener pastures (which are actually quite green – literally and figuratively - here in Melbourne), will once again feel richer compared to the few I know who still live in New Zealand – The NZD/AUD exchange rate is definitely favouring the NZ dollar currently. It would therefore be good if the 5 headed hydra got around to collapsing the dollar before I have to come back for Christmas.
   

2. John Key grows a spine
   

   John Key has not in this election campaign been confident enough to propose the significant reforms required to transform New Zealand to a productive high growth economy. He has sought to neutralise fear of National by adopting Labour's ill founded policy. Unfortunately, I doubt he has a secret agenda waiting to be put in place after the election either. While it may have eased the concerns of those dependant on Aunty Helen and may give National the election, he has shown a lack of ambition for New Zealand.
   

   Perhaps if the 5 headed hydra win in 2008, the disgust in 2011 will allow him room to do what is necessary to fix the economy.
   

3. Winston gets back in
   

   There really is nothing good about Winston Peters except it is entertaining to watch. him. squirm.
   

So don't worry there is hope for us even with a 5 headed hydra in charge.