Australia v NZ: Abandoning NZ and Cullen's comments

Stuff led with the attention grabbing headline 'One in 10 Kiwis eyeing Australia' this morning.

The article discusses the latest Fairfax poll that puts National on 52% compared to Labour on 34%, and states National, on this poll can govern alone.

It always worries me seeing 'National can govern alone' spread across the media. While if the poll did actually translate into seats it would be a good thing and although National may be secretly hoping for it, I think given the average New Zealander's tall poppy envy, resentment may start to kick in. Non-rational voters who were leaning National for the change of face may turn away, rational voters who want a National government may, by considering the election already won, turn to compatible minor parties who policies more closely align with their interests.

Anyway, back to Australia, the article is saying that approximately 430,000 New Zealanders are considering moving over here. Even if only 10% of those considering the move carry it through, that is still 43,000 abandoning New Zealand for Australia.

With the 8,500 who return to New Zealand each year, that makes a net migration to Australia of 34,500. Therefore 6,500 more New Zealanders are moving to Australia in 2008 then did in 2007 (I note that the Stats NZ population clock is only based on a net emigration, anywhere in the world, of 12,032.5 per year).

This is a worrying trend, and how does the government respond? Cullen is apparently unsurprised by the high numbers looking at Australia as an alternative:

"given the enormous publicity that's been given to migration to
Australia".

Yes, that's right Australia is marketing itself as a destination to live so effectively that 10% of New Zealanders are considering a move over, and, last year, 36,500 New Zealanders made the move. Somehow, and correct me if I am mistaken, I do not believe it is all about marketing. Cullen goes on, he cautions against an overly optimistic view of prospects in Australia:

"Of course confidence has collapsed in Australia as well. I think people better
look fairly carefully. And inflation is higher in Australia than it is in New
Zealand. I think there's still the picture the Australian economy is booming
along, whereas they're running into some headwind as well."

Yes, business confidence in Australia is down, but not as bad as NZ. However, I do not see a lack of confidence in the average Australian person. Interest rates are up, but not at the level they are in New Zealand. Job security is not an issue, Australia does not rely on a few businesses to provide jobs that support whole industry sectors (i.e. there is no F&P about to leave and topple a town's economy); it would take a BHP to leave to have the same effect on Australia, and that cannot happen as the resources BHP depends on are located in Australia, mining is not transferable (unlike a manufacturing plant, or it seems an airport).

As for inflation, yes Australia is at 4.2% where as New Zealand is at 3.4% (both CPI measures). But both are still low by historical standards, and growth in Australia remains higher (which means that higher inflation will impact less in real terms). Plus I would like to see what happens to inflation when the overvalued NZ$ collapses (either when the Reserve Bank starts easing, which it may never do, given the inflation danger, or when those buying the NZ$ grow more wary of the risk they are taking). This will send NZ inflation through the roof, everything imported will become more expensive.